Goldman Sachs Model Names Brazil As World Cup 2010 Winners

9th June 2010 | World Cup Betting category: Football World Cup News
Football World Cup News

Why Brazil will win the 2010 World Cup – it’s in all in the math! UK Wall Street giants Goldman Sachs, who reap in the largest financial profits in the district, have again put a little mathematical savvy into the World Cup. Famously, starting back in 1998, the financial company came up with a published paper, which thoroughly analysed the chances of what would happen at the World Cup. The result of their model, was the correct prediction of three out of four of the semi finalists. At Germany 2006, the model again named three of the four semi finalists, proving that math can solve a lot more than Wall Street investments. However, in 2006 too, Goldman Sachs upped the ante and updated their initial World Cup and Economics model, to produce the Goldman Sachs World Cup Probability Model. Here we will endeavour to explain in layman’s terms, exactly what this is, as it could help in some of your World Cup betting choices.

The Goldman Sachs World Cup Probability Model, takes into consideration FIFA rankings initially and converts those rankings into statistical odds of probability. Then they get combined with a wide array of actual odds on the participating nations from a broad spectrum of bookies. One of the key components that the Model applies in running its calculations, is the “strength of schedule”, taking into consideration how regular a team plays. After all the number crunching has been done by the Goldman Sachs World Cup probability model, it produces final percentages on the ultimate chances of victory for each nation at the World Cup. This is all based on objective probabilities of course, and therefore there is still the unexpected element which the actual game on the day brings to the equation. Still, with a pretty good track record at predicting the path of the World Cup, it could be something that you may want to take into consideration for your World Cup betting strategy.

The calculations have been done and Brazil top the list with a 13.7% chance of winning the 2010 FIFA World Cup. According to the Goldman Sachs Probability Model, tournament favourites Spain are well back of winning, at just 10.46%. Will that influence your betting? Well then, how about England? The model spat a figure of 9.38% chance of winning for Fabio Capello’s men, landing them fourth on the potential list of winners. While you may not agree with the percentages that the model have thrown out, they may be worth bearing in mind. At least it may give some good pointers as to who will most likely reach the latter stages of South Africa 2010, and that is worth taking note of, even though there are no great surprises there really.

Goldman Sachs World Cup Probability Model: (latest best World Cup outright odds in brackets)
Brazil 13.76% (19/4 at Bwin)
Spain 10.46% (4/1 at Bet365)
Germany 9.40% (14/1 at SkyBet)
England 9.38% (8/1 at Paddy Power)
Argentina 9.08% (7/1 at Coral)
Netherlands 7.07% (10/1 at Totesport)
Italy 6.46% (16/1 at Bet365)
France 6.13% (20/1 at SkyBet)
USA 2.81% (80/1 at SportingBet)
Serbia 2.61% (66/1 at SkyBet)
Mexico 2.40% (80/1 at Boylesports)
Portugal 2.32% (33/1 at Totesport)
Uruguay 2.11% (125/1 at Bwin)
Greece 1.84%
Nigeria 1.76%
Australia 1.69%
Ghana 1.63%
Cameroon 1.12%
Paraguay 1.06%
Slovenia 1.06%
Chile 0.87%
South Korea 0.76%
Denmark 0.74%
Algeria 0.69%
South Africa 0.68%
Ivory Coast 0.55%
Slovakia 0.52%
Japan 0.44%
Switzerland 0.35%
New Zealand 0.11%
Honduras 0.11%
North Korea 0.05%


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* All mentioned odds were valid at the time of writing. Betting odds are subject to fluctuations. Please check the current odds with the respective bookmaker!

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