Lee’s Personal 2010 World Cup Betting Tips and Thoughts

9th June 2010 | World Cup Betting category: World Cup Qualification Previews & Predictions
World Cup Qualification Previews & Predictions

Outright World Cup Winner: It was with great interest with which I followed the qualification process for the 2010 World Cup, notably from Europe and South America, as the winner of South Africa 2010 is only going to come from one of those two continents. While the World Cup has been expanded in recent times, no other zone is going to put forth a serious challenger to win the tournament. While the qualification for South Africa 2010 finished some time ago, there are little pointers and stats that can be looked at in order to boost your chances of picking the winner out of the 32 teams. Realistically it is not 32 teams entering the competition, as the winner will only come from a select handful of nations. There have only been seven different nations win the World Cup, and that should narrow down your options, with the inclusion of Spain showing the most potential to put a new name on the trophy. Spain are the European Champions, yes, and have more talent than they know what to do with. It is from an embarrassment of riches from which coach Vicente del Bosque has to pick, and it is why they have been leading the way in betting for some time now. But the Spaniards are not my selection for a couple of reasons. I personally think that the choke factor will come into play again for the Spaniards, with the weight of so much expectation upon them. They have never been beyond the last four in the tournament, and I see them falling there. It may go against the grain of things, after they won the European Championships, but history doesn’t back up things going well at the World Cup for current European Champions. I like history when it comes to betting, it plays a huge influential part of my betting strategies.

Being an Englishman myself, my tip for the World Cup is an unpatriotic one, but it is with Brazil where my wager will lay (9/2 at Bet365). Why? I shall point you back to qualification. They played rivals Argentina, a match in which victory would ensure them qualification for South Africa 2010. They went to Buenos Aires and breezed out with a 3-1 win in a hostile, stranglehold of a situation. Why does this matter now? Because it shows what Dunga’s Brazil are all about. Dunga has been criticised for taking the flair out of Brazil. Everyone wants them to play the pretty stuff, but Dunga has a different way of thinking. He is abrasive with the press, and ignores outside interference and pressure on his team. After Brazil failed miserably at Germany 2006, the Selecao want their trophy back, and there is an ominous quiet presence about Brazil that is hard to ignore. So, Dunga’s Brazil may not approach games in the same way as Brazilian fans would expect, but the World Cup is all about winning. Ask Italy, it’s not how good you look doing it, it’s getting the job done. While they are more conservative, with a keen eye on their defensive duties, they are simply lethal at catching teams on the break. With full backs playing as wingers, they can break forward and outnumber and overhwelm defences which have been caught cold. They also have an un-Brazilian trait of scoring plenty now from set pieces, with the likes of Dani Alves and Lucio in the ranks. There are simply threats from all over the park, and they now have the confidence with some true quality at the back. Lucio and Maicon are simply inspirational in defence, and Brazil actually have a safe pair of hands in Julio Cesar. If Kaka in midfield is on top of his game, then he will run the show. Brazil are organised, calm, confident and hardy against whoever they face. Efficiency is the word for the new Brazil, and as long as Luis Fabiano stays fit and firing, Brazil, who are the only nation to win the World Cup outside of their own continent, could be taking home their sixth title.

World Cup Dark Horse:
I have been really torn over this one, as there are many good choices. Frankly, anyone outside of Brazil and Spain look like a dark horse to be honest, so strong are those two nations. I think there are two tiers to the dark horses, teams who can genuinely win the World Cup outside of the favoured two, and those Dark Horses for who, reaching the quarter finals would be a major success. Serbia fall into the second category, and it is hard to ignore the work they have done in securing a World Cup berth for themselves, and they look a good strong, technical side. They look the strongest bet as for dark horses, but others fall into the same category, such as Chile, Uruguay, Paraguay and Slovakia. A strong tip would be the Serbians though, as they have a relatively good draw. As for dark horses that could potentially cause a real upset, then Holland look very strong, Argentina have a wealth of talent but not a team, France have the players to cause a lot of damage but have the wrong coach, I’ve always enjoyed watching the Italians and I think they will be a lot stronger than people are expecting. But I would go for Germany (14/1 at BetFred), even with all of their injury worries, I think they are an incredibly well organised and efficient side who are quietly going about their business. I think they can seriously build a good run through the tournament, and should be watched out for.

Golden Boot Winner:
Yes, the likes of David Villa, Fernando Torres, Lionel Messi, Luis Fabiano and Wayne Rooney will be the favourites, but my selection comes from left field a bit. Argentina and England won’t score enough goals to put their strikers in with a real chance, so the safer bet would be the Spaniards. However, I am plumping for Arsenal’s Robin van Persie (12/1 at Bet365) to set things alight. Holland have an easy group and the way they are playing at the moment, and firing on all cylinders, makes them a safe bet to be one of the tournament’s top scoring teams, and if that happens, then Van Persie will be in the thick of it. Out of the favourites, Fabiano is probably the most accomplished all round striker at the World Cup. He can do it all, on the ground, in the air, and stabbing home from the goal line, so he would be my tip there, especially as I’ve backed Brazil to win the World Cup, it will be his goals that get them there.

How The Tournament Will Go:
There is a lot of potential for some upsets in the Group Stages, there really are. Even though the seeded teams usually find a way to pull through, there could be some real scares along the way. I would not be surprised to see both Mexico and Uruguay pushing France all of the way in Group A, similarly Paraguay and Slovakia doing the same to Italy in Group F. I would also not be surprised to see all African nations fall at the first hurdle, as I think they are flattering to deceive in World Cup odds, and I think the African game is in for a real shock, a real wake up call, at World Cup 2010. The one I’m most interested in, is seeing if South Africa can keep the history of every host nation reaching the second round. There could be a couple of surprising names in the last sixteen, and I fancy South Korea and Slovenia both to sneak in. As for England, they just don’t have it in them unfortunately, and I hope I’m wrong. If things go to plan, they will have to beat Spain and Brazil along they way in order to do so, I cannot see that happening with the current crop of players. The World Cup final everyone wants to see is Spain v Brazil, and if on July 11th, that is the line-up, then it could be one of the most memorable World Cup finals for years.

 



The tip is based on the personal opinion of the author. No success is guaranteed. Please gamble responsibly. 18+




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