Spain v Germany Betting Odds, Tips and Predictions – World Cup Semi Final

5th July 2010 | World Cup Betting category: World Cup Previews & Predictions
World Cup Previews & Predictions

Germany v Spain Betting Odds

Germany to win: 19/10 at William Hill
Draw: 23/10 at Bwin
Spain to win: 7/4 at Victor Chandler

To Qualify:

Spain – 18/19 at Bwin
Germany – Evens at SkyBet

World Cup 2010 Semi Final
Date: Wednesday, July 7th
Kick Off: 19.30 GMT

Spain

Spain v Germany is a repeat of the Euro 2008 final, which the Spaniards won, finally putting to bed their major criticism about not being able to step up to the plate in tournament football. Spain became European Champions thanks to a goal by Fernando Torres, who is having troubled times at the World Cup. Spain came into the 2010 FIFA World Cup as outright favourites, but their path to the final has not been plain sailing. After famously suffering a first match defeat against Switzerland, Spain needed to rally themselves in order to get through. They have made it to the semi finals as expected, but not in the manner they expected. They have scored just six goals in their five matches, with five of them coming from star striker David Villa. David Villa is 13/10 at Bwin as Anytime Scorer in the Germany v Spain semi final. While we have all seen the brilliance and top form of Germany, Brazil and Argentina at the World Cup at some point, Spain have not quite delivered. Perhaps the shaky start dented their confidence a little bit, and while they are capable of putting on a show in front of the watching world, they have not. If you take David Villa out of the equation, there has been little genuine penetration up front from Spain, apart from Andres Iniesta. Spain were out muscled and out worked in their Quarter Final match against Paraguay, a match in which they should have found themselves behind in at half time, but for a wrongly disallowed goal for the South Americans after striker Nelson Valdez was flagged offside before putting the ball past Iker Casillas. The final execution has not been there, and the Spaniards have been guilty on more than one occasion of over-complicating simple things. They look as if they are trying just a little too hard.

It is understandable with the weight of expectation upon their shoulders. Spain’s last three victories have been by just one goal, where they were expected to go out and steam roller their way over teams. If you expect that trend to continue, Spain to win by 1 goal is 10/3 at Bet365. The dominance in front of goal hasn’t happened, because, as Paraguay showed, the Spaniards are not quite as solid throughout the team as perhaps they were expected to be. Paraguay did a fantastic job of hassling the Spaniards out of possession and disrupting their natural passing game, making Spain look really off colour. It is the same thing which Chile did against the Spaniards, and was working well until they gave away a goal in their final group match. It is the same thing which Portugal did, and the Spaniards were stopped from playing their game. Tough tackling in the middle of the park, and defending high up the pitch in pressuring the Spanish back line when they have the ball, cuts of the supply line to their forwards. The ball was not coming out of the back well, and therefore the Spanish midfield never really got a firm grip on the game. But to their credit, their collective will and team spirit have seen them overcome their trials and tribulations without ever finding their rhythm.

Coach Vicente Del Bosque
knows that his team have yet to hit their peak, and while that may be worrying him, at the same time it may give him a lot of confidence knowing that there may be more to come. Spain are a team which need possession, and that is what the South Americans did not give them, at least not any quality possession. The Spain v Germany semi final is a match which may take on a different picture though, as the Germans will not be as compact as Spain’s South American opponents. The Germans like to play a high tempo game, almost in a frenetic English Premier League style, but with a little more class and conviction. While the success of the Germans have been unexpected, there will be no surprises in the way that Spain play. They are very patient on the ball with some of the most technically gifted players with the ball at their feet. Xavi and Iniesta especially stand out as world class players, whether dribbling or picking out a pass. They are the fulcrum of the team, and those are the key players which Germany will need to keep quiet. They will also naturally need to watch out for in from David Villa, who makes such an impact from standing out on the left hand touch line and launching attacks from there. Spain are a quality side, even though they have not hit their top form. Perhaps that is the most ominous thing about them, that they could explode at any moment. All of their main threats are coming from Villa, who will be lining up against German captain Philip Lahm at right back. That is just one of the key battles, with the other being how much Bastian Schweinsteiger can keep Xavi quiet. Spain have all of the class and control, do they have the mental toughness now to take on the tournaments’ most in form team?

Germany

Germany are arguably the best team in the World Cup, simply because they are playing fearless football. Coach Joachim Loew is reaping the benefits of nearly a half a billion Euro investment in the youth of Germany a decade ago. This was their response to failures in tournaments, and the German FA responded with aggression. Germany are a young side, largely built around the successful Under 21 side, and the young players have shown no problems in making the step up to the full team. There is still a good core of experienced heads in the team, notably top scorer Miroslav Klose and Bastian Schweingsteiger, who is again proving to be one of the best players at the tournament. Miroslav Klose is 2/1 at Paddy Power as Anytime Goalscorer for the Spain v Germany semi final. One wonders if the pace of the German game is down to the injury to veteran Captain Michael Ballack, who was injured before the tournament. He is someone who will slow games down by putting his foot on the ball, but the Germans at the 2010 FIFA World Cup have simply been going straight for the throats of their opponents. There has been not dallying on the ball, it is getting forward at every opportunity, and not being afraid to throw the numbers up in attack. This is a philosophy and approach which works very well when you have young legs to track up and down the pitch all afternoon. Germany to win by one goal is 7/2 at SkyBet

Germany’s Tomas Mueller will be a sad omission from the Spain v Germany semi final, as the creative and dynamic midfielder has been one of the particular bright sparks. He goals he has scored at South Africa 2010 have been the first ones in his young career, giving him a tally of four goals in seven appearances. He only made his full international debut in March during an international friendly against Argentina. Mueller picked up a very harsh yellow card in their quarter final demolition of Argentina, having received it for a supposed deliberate hand ball, which looked anything but. That will rob the Germans of one of their most influential players, but they are still packed with quality and youth going forward. Their 4-2-3-1 formation is something that is working a treat, and Joachim Low has picked players to fit into that formation perfectly. This is not about squeezing players into a team because of who they are, this is building a team which is designed to play a certain way, and Low is picking players who can do specific jobs. That old German efficiency is proving one of their strong points, as well as watching all of the players fight for their team, and do their specific jobs. Loew had stated before their clash with Argentina in the quarter finals, that he had spotted weaknesses in the Argentinean game, things which not many other people had seen. Germany’s ability to break quickly with one touch passing, exploited the weakness of Argentina’s lack of willingness to get their forwards back to help out in defence. The German midfield, notably Schweinsteiger, did a fantastic job of negating the threat of Lionel Messi. Not an easy job, but the sublime number ten simply drifted out of the game, and Argentina could not get the ball forward to Higuain and Tevez. Germany hit the Argentineans hard with a  4-0 victory, their second victory of the 2010 FIFA World Cup by that scoreline.

That is thirteen goals in just five games, and contrast that against Spain’s six. You will see where the bigger attacking threat lies. Germany v Spain will see two teams, two rivals come together which like to keep the ball. If  Spain get deprived of possession again, they will know that Germany pose a much bigger threat in going forward than most of their opponents so far. Del Bosque will have seen how well the Germans completely snuffed out Argentina, who play a very similar style to Spain, so the coach may have a little rethink to do. His main decision will be to stick with the ineffective Fernando Torres or not, or perhaps go with Cesc Fabregas. Fabregas is undergoing a scan on his shoulder after falling awkwardly, but Del Bosque does have other options, in Fernando Llorente or the exciting youngster Pedro. They also have David Silva or Jesus Navas who can come in if they want more men in midfield, so Del Bosque is not short of quality on the bench. Few predicted the journey that the Germans have undertaken, and looking full of confidence, technical ability and hunger, and more like a team that what Spain are, they may be able to continue it, and get some revenge for their Euro 2008 final failure. Germany like to play that high tempo, high pressure game, and defending has to be done from the front. Against Spain they will have plenty of space to play their wide game, and it should be a thrilling encounter, and one that Germany are capable of taking. They may have young fresh players, but they have the World Cup pedigree to do so. This is their tenth semi final appearances, this is Spain’s first.

Spain v Germany Betting Prediction:

There is a stark contrast between the two teams and their coaches. Vicente Del Bosque inherited a team of world class superstars, but Joachim Loew has built his team from nothing. Which is the better route to go? Everything Germany do is as a team, attack and defend even though they have individual stars such as Mueller, Oezil and Klose, they are more of a team, more of a unit than Spain. Germany have placed a lot of faith in their youngster, no doubt something which Fabio Capello will be watching with interest. Even if they lose here, their investments will have paid off. There is a lot to be admired about the Germans, and they should be fearless enough to play their game and take out the Spaniards.
Germany 0 Asian HandicapEvens at Paddy Power




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