Spain v Germany Betting Statistics – World Cup Semi Final

7th July 2010 | World Cup Betting category: World Cup Qualification Previews & Predictions
World Cup Qualification Previews & Predictions

Spain v Germany Betting Stats

Over Under 2.5 Goals
If, like most punters, stats are your thing, we will explore them here for the Germany v Spain World Cup Semi Final. Let’s look at the goal scoring threat of both sides to start. With Torres not contributing anything but wasted chances, Spain are relying heavily on David Villa for goals, who has netted all but one of the nation’s goals at the World Cup. While Spain have been stuttering, there is the quality there to step up a gear, and they are arguably the best side in the world at the moment. Do they look as if they have three goals in them? Against a good side, not really. They have not been that dominating in terms of creating clear cut chances, even though they always dominate possession. Germany in contrast have been scoring for fun. Germany are on a 2.60 average goals per game, while Spain are averaging a far less at just 1.20. This means that goals should be fully expected from the Germans who have been potent in front of goal, largely thanks to their strength and ruthlessness in going on the break. Miroslav Klose is the main man which they will go to of course, and they will be missing Thomas Mueller who has hit four during the tournament, which is a huge blow to them. Still, add together the goals averages and you should be pretty safe going over, as both sides could have plenty of goals in them. Semi final’s usually don’t produce three goals, but records are tumbling at South Africa 2010. Looking at the four World Cups prior to South Africa 2010, only 2 of the eight matches made it to the three goals. Well worth a punt here though:
Spain V Germany Over 2.5 Goals: 6/5 at Bet365

World Cup History for Match Odds
Germany have the edge over Spain in World Cup meetings, having won two of their three encounters, with the other one having ended in a draw. For the record, here is the World Cup history between the two nations:
1994 Group Match: Germany 1, Spain 1
1982 Second Round: Germany 2, Spain 1
1966 Group Match: Germany 2, Spain 1
This is a tough match to call as Germany are the most explosive side at South Africa 2010, but Spain will likely dominate all of the possession. "Paul the Octopus" in Germany predicted a Spanish victory, so whether you want to go with an octopus or from form guides and stats, Spain are still the favourites to win the match, but the question will be who will have the more firepower at the end of the day, and that, at the moment, appears to be Germany.
Spain to win: 7/4 at Bwin
Draw: 23/10 at Ladbrokes
Germany to win: 15/8 at Boylesports

To Qualify:

Spain are tipped to go through, but really, what would be more enticing that a Germany v Holland World Cup final. You may think that England are Germany’s old foes, but if you have spent time in Germany, and I can speak from experience, you will be told that the Dutch are their main rivals. Likewise Germany is pretty much at the top of the Dutch hit list, so that final would stir up some fantastic rivalries. In many ways, this should be the final, with Spain being a fantastically accomplished and experienced teams, up against the young German upstarts. The bookmakers again only just lean towards Spain in this market, showing how close the two teams are. So therefore, the next market may be a better option. If you like your historical stats, then Spain have never been to the World Cup finals (this is their first time in the semi’s) whereas Germany have been to the Final seven times. They also have four semi final defeats under their belt, including at Germany 2006 against Portugal.
Spain: 18/19 at Bwin
Germany: Evens at Totesport

Draw No Bet
Whoever you plump for, going for the Draw No Bet option will bring you shorter odds than outright betting, but at least it gives you coverage. You’ll probably have a preference already in your mind as to who you want to win, but getting a stake refund for them drawing at the end of ninety minutes appeals to a lot of people. Again, there is little to chose between the two teams on this one, but for a World Cup semi finals, taking Evens for both is pretty good odds. Only two of the last eight World Cup semi final matches have gone to extra time.
GermanyEvens at Boylesports
SpainEvens at Bwin

Correct Score
This is always an interesting, yet difficult market to call. For this one, the best guide is to look at results between the two teams, and results through the tournament. It’s worth looking at the average goals scored first off, and with Germany’s at 2.60 and Spain’s at 1.20, so it seems like a 2-1 victory for Germany would be a pretty safe bet here. It’s a decent price to snap up as well, hovering around 10/1 at most online bookmakers. On the flip side of that, both sides have only conceded two goals each during the tournament, which means that while there really is an enormous amount of potential for a lot of goals in this match, the defences of both teams are pretty solid and tight, which will keep the count down. 2-1 is always a great scoreline to plump with when looking through correct score markets, and bear in mind that two of the last three encounters between Germany v Spain in the World Cup have ended in a 2-1 victory for the Germans. Spain did beat Germany 1-0 in the final of Euro 2008 of course, but the German side is much changed since then.
Germany 2-1: 10/1 at SkyBet
Other best priced options:
Draw 1-1: 11/2 at Boylesports
Spain 1-0: 7/1 at 888Sport
Germany 1-0: 15/2 at Blue Square
Draw 0-0: 8/1 at Bet365
Spain 2-1: 10/1 at Victor Chandler
Spain 2-0: 12/1 at 888Sport
Germany 2-0: 14/1 at Blue Square

To win on Penalties
We like a good penalty shoot out. There is no better drama in football, as long as your nation is not participating, or your bet is hinging on it. Germany of course are the penalty kick kings, have won all four of their shoot outs in World Cup history. Their last one came in the Quarter Finals of Germany 2006 where they beat Argentina 4-2. The other three teams which have fallen to Germany on penalties at the World Cup, is Mexico, France and of course, England. Spain however, are not faring quite as well, having only won 1 out 3 World Cup shoot outs. Their first failure was against Belgium in ‘86 and their last was sent them crashing out of the 2002 World Cup when they lost 3-5 to South Korea in the Quarter Finals. Their only success came in the round previous to that in 2002, when they beat the Republic of Ireland 3-2. You would back Germany in a penalty shoot out.
Germany9/1 at Paddy Power
Spain9/1 at Paddy Power

Anytime Goalscorer
It is always worth looking at this market as opposed to First Goalscorer, as your odds are lower but realistically you have a little more chance of landing a winner. It is well worth simply backing the strikers in this market, and when you look at tournament David Villa going for around 4/1 it is not to be sniffed at. While Villa is pretty much a one man goal machine for Spain, don’t discount their attacking midfielders, as there is some serious quality in there when it comes to goals, so look at Iniesta and Xavi to get in on the act. It could be a midfield break which splits this tie wide open. For Germany, all of their midfield and attack look to have goals in them, but Klose is the main man for them, with Podolski and Oezil the most likely candidates to get in on the action.
David Villa: 9/2 at Bwin
Miroslav Klose: 13/2 at Bet365
Fernando Torres: 13/2 at Bwin
Fernando Llorente: 8/1 at Bet365
No Goalscorer: 8/1 at SkyBet
Lukas Podolski: 8/1 at Stan James
Mesut Oezil: 14/1 at Totesport
Andres Iniesta: 14/1 at Bet365
Xavi: 16/1 at BetFred

Let’s look at a Villa v Klose Head to Head

  Villa Klose
Age 28 32
Height 5′ 9" 5′ 11"
WC2010 Matches Played 5 4
WC2010 Minutes Played 448 267
WC2010 Goals Scored 5 4
WC2010 Shots 23 11
WC2010 Shots on Target 14 8
WC2010 Total Passes 189 78
Career World Cup Goals 8 14
International Caps 63 100
International Goals 43 52

Germany v Spain Asian Handicap
Always a great market to explore. Why? Because you get extra coverage for your money, as you can back a loser and still win. The teams and World Cup odds for the Spain v Germany semi final are pretty tight, so you are not going to find too extravagant odds in this market, unless you think Germany is going to run up another goal fest for example. You will need to stray out towards a handicap of two to get some serious prices going, but you’ll need to ask yourself how realistic that will be? Are Germany two goals better than Spain, or vice-versa? As to be expected, both teams for 0 Asian Handicap are around Evens, same as most other prices, so it’s not really dabbling into that. So where are the best prices at? Looking in the minus as the teams are closely matched, bookmakers are not going to give nice prices in giving a team an advantage. You will find better odds on the Germans in the minus, as Spain slightly edge things in terms of betting. Whichever way you lean, just ask yourself how many goals you think either team will win by. If its going to be close, then a price of Spain -1 for 17/5 at Bet365 is a pretty decent price. That brings a stake refund for Spain winning by 1 goal, and a full priced win if they win by 2 clear goals. Germany at -0.75 for 47/20 at Bet365 is a decent price as well, and that will give a half win for Germany winning by 1 goal, and a full win for them winning by 2 goals. The Asian Handicap market is always worth dipping into, and however strongly you fancy Spain or Germany to win by, you can back your margin for some good prices.

 WC2010 Germany Spain
Played W4, D0, L1 W4, D0, L1
Goals For/Against 13/2 6/2
Cards Y8, 2Y1, R0 Y3, 2Y0, R0
Most Shots Lukas Podolski, 21 David Villa, 23
Most Goals Klose, Mueller, 4 David Villa 5
Shots/On Goal 79/33 90/35
Fouls Committed 55 55
Total Passes 2768 3475
Pass Completion Rate 73% 80%
Recent Stats P50, W34, D8, L8 P50, W44, D4, L2
Recent Stats Win Percentage 68.0% 88%
Last 10 Form DDLWWWLWWW WWWWWLWWWW

 

World Cup 2010 Castrol Index Ranking (which analyses overal performance)
1) Philipp Lahm (GER 9.79)
2) Sergio Ramos (ESP 9.74)
3) Gerard Pique (ESP 9.70)
4) Joan Capdevila (ESP 9.66)
5) David Villa (ESP 9.62)

 



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* All mentioned odds were valid at the time of writing. Betting odds are subject to fluctuations. Please check the current odds with the respective bookmaker!




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