Sweden vs Italy Betting Preview – World Cup 2018 Qualification

7th November 2017 | World Cup Betting category: World Cup Qualification Previews & Predictions
World Cup Qualification Previews & Predictions

This is a play off tie between two of the stronger sides from the runners up from the group stage. The Swedes narrowly missed out to France in their qualification group, but are a part of the reason why the Netherlands miss out at Russia 2018. The Azzurri had a tough group stage draw in what was only a two horse race with Spain for the top spot, but the Italians came off second best and they now have a tough draw in this one.

Sweden vs Italy Odds

Italy 6/5, Draw 2/1, Sweden 5/2

Sweden vs Italy Betting Tips

Sweden will be a threat in this tie after some telling results in their qualification group. They held off the Netherlands to keep the Dutch out of the World Cup and took a notable home win over France along the way. Sweden posted a W4 D1 record on home soil in the qualification campaign and the win over France shows that they are a danger here to Italy. In their ten games, the Swedes scored well, netting 26 times and neither France nor the Netherlands could match that tally. Home advantage in this one is going to be all important for them because they know that they will face a tough away game in Italy. Marcus Berg, who was their top scorer through qualification is a price of 15/8 in the bet356 anytime goalscorer market to net in this one. Sweden did concede in each of their two big home games during the qualification group (against France and the Netherlands) but the head to head, and situation to some extent suggest that both teams NOT to score at bet365 for a price of 10/110 in this one will be value.

Sweden and Italy’s last coming together was in the 2016 European Championships with the Italians banking a 1-0 victory in that match to extend their unbeaten form to five against the Swedes. They have won three of those with a 1-0 scoreline and that’s worth investigating and there is a price of 6/1 in the bet365 correct score market on an Italy 1-0 result with only the 1-1 draw coming in shorter at 5/1. Five of the last six meetings between the two nations have gone under 2.5 goals four of the last six have been settled by a 1-0 scoreline by whoever has come out on top. They have not met in Sweden to make any difference in looking at current head to head form, but Sweden are unbeaten in four home games against Italy with a W3 D1 record and they didn’t concede in any of those. Under 2.5 goals is a price of 1/2 with bet365 and Italy have only conceded in four of their last twelve internationals which should play its part in that.

Italy’s participation in the play offs was pretty much sealed when the group stage qualifiers were drawn. That is because they were lumped with Spain in a two-horse race to qualifying. They were keeping pace with the Spaniards, including playing out a 1-1 home draw against them until they went to Spain late in qualification and lost 3-0. That was the damaging blow and they couldn’t recover and even went on to drop two more points in a tie with Macedonia. The defeat against Spain would have knocked the wind out of them. So there is a difficult challenge ahead for them now to get to the World Cup. Italy have posted a W4 D1 L1 record in their last four, but have only netted one goal exactly in each of their last three (including that draw with Macedonia). Andrea Belotti and Ciro Immobile are joint 15/8 anytime goalscorer options for the game.

This is a tough away game for Italy against a good home side and Italy will have to contain and they will be stronger back on home soil as Sweden aren’t particularly great travellers. This is going to be tense but Sweden may just have the edge in wanting to deliver before a tricky return game for the second leg.



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