Betting on Spain at the World Cup 2010

Manager:Vicente Del Bosque
Captain: Iker Casillas
FIFA World Ranking: 2
World Cup Appearances: 12
Best World Cup: Fourth Place – 1950

Spain Team Profile

Ah, the silky Spaniards. The favourites to win South Africa’s show-piece event, the side no-one in their right mind will look forward to playing, as the former World No. 1 now turned World No. 2 seek out a sensational double after winning the 2008 European Championships in their last major tournament.

The Spanish will try to complete a double of major honours as they prepare for South Africa 2010 with the objective being to become the first European nation to back a European Championship success up with victory in the World Cup. However, to do so Spain will need to make their first ever World Cup final to even stand a chance of making even more records under Vicente Del Bosque. In fact the further Spain have ever got in a World Cup is the semi-finals, and even then it was on just the one occasions over a decade ago.

Times have changed though since 1950, the one and only time Spain made the semi-finals of a World Cup, and 2010 is surely the year when Spain at least break their duct of having never reached a World Cup final. Their squad is lined with world-beaters, some of football’s biggest names, and under the wise old knowledge and guidance of Del Bosque, this Spanish team is arguably the best there has ever been. They sailed through qualifying with an immaculate record, winning all 10 of their qualifiers – The only team with a perfect 100% record going to South Africa, while it was only last year their run of 35 games without loss came crashing to an end at the FIFA Confederations Cup.

Spain were widely known for being one of the biggest underachievers in International football but their success in the 2008 European Championships has put that unwanted tag to bed for the time being. However, big things are expected of the Spanish once again, and with one of the best squads in the tournament, the underachieving tag could come out of the closet should Spain not make serious inroads during their stay in South Africa.

Nicknames: La Furia Roja (The Red Fury), La Roja (The Red One)

Manager

Vicente Del Bosque is a veteran in his managerial career and is not short of a success or two either. In his playing career, he spent all his days as a defender, winning five Spanish La Liga titles with Spanish giants Real Madrid. He then went on to manage Real Madrid after he hung up his playing boots and led the club to their most successful period between 1999-2003, winning a brace of Champions League titles along with two La Liga titles.

Del Bosque‘s also has bags of experience when it comes to managing ‘big players’. Luis Figo, Zinedine Zidane and Ronaldo were all under his guidance while at Real Madrid and moulded the three legends of football into a world class act. He will be aiming to do the same with Spain and he certainly has a host of quality players at his disposal.

Spain Key Players

Iker Casillas

There has been an ongoing debate for some time about who is the best goalkeeper in the world but for the last decade or so, Iker Casillas has always been in the frame. He has been Real Madrid’s best ever goalkeeper and arguably Spain’s greatest ever, also. Lightening fast reactions, quick reflexes and his immense presence in his own penalty area makes for one of the worlds finest goalkeepers and when Casillas is on top of his game, it really does take something extraordinary to beat him.

David Villa & Fernando Torres

For most countries, one world-class striker is hard to come by. Spain, though, they have two of the World’s best forwards on the planet in Valencia’s prolific David Villa; a predator in and around the opposing penalty area, and Liverpool’s own Fernando Torres; a player with immense talent and the composure of mind to crate and score a goal from a seemingly impossible position. These two are menacing together, almost unstoppable when partnered, and it bodes well for Spain that two of the favourites for the Golden Shoe are in their team.

Fernando Torres has scored 23 goals in 72 games for Spain, which is actually on the slim side, but Villa more than makes up for Torres’ sloppy looking international record, scoring a staggering 36 goals in 55 caps for his country. To say these two have goals in them would be stating the obvious.

Xavi & Iniesta

The World’s most skilful players often enjoy the limelight in football today but if you ask any football purist who they think the best player in the world is, we bet these two would get an awful lot of mentions. The pair have the ability to not only control a match but also dictate the tempo at which it will be played. They take the game by the scruff of the neck and make things happen with their swift one-two’s and their inch-perfect through balls. The duet are a lethal combination at both club and international level, and because they both play for Barcelona, the chemistry between the two is perfection. If you want to halt the Spanish express, you’ll need to find a way to stop the source; Xavi & Iniesta.

Strengths

Spain‘s biggest asset is their ability to retain the ball. Quick and slick should be their motto. Their crisp passing doesn’t just get them out of sticky situations but it also creates chance after chance and it’s a defenders nightmare keeping up with the pace of Spain‘s passing. They switch the flank at every opportunity in a bid to expose the opposing full-backs and their own full-backs forward and they will look to bombard the defence with crosses. The good thing about Spain’s play is they can vary their style of play. One moment they will be feeling out the oppositions defence with the short, crisp passing while the next they’ll be flinging the ball out to Sergio Ramos & Capdevilla to whip the ball into the forwards. This makes reading the play very hard and is one of the reasons why Spain have become so successful in recent years.

Weaknesses

Spain‘s passing maybe close to perfection but they’re a side who can pass the ball around too much in a bid to score the ‘perfect goal’. Spain generally don’t have a problem against sides that attack them, despite their defence not being the strongest, but when a team sets up in a defensive manner and puts 10 men behind the ball, Spain can often struggle to break these teams down. Too much time is wasted in the centre of the park and were a big side to go one-nil up, it’s feasible that they could then hold out the Spanish attacks and use Spain’s strength to their advantage.

Spain Qualification for the World Cup

Sector: Europe
Group: 5
Position: 1st
Win-Draw-Lose: 10-0-0
Goals Scored: 28
Goals Conceded: 5

World Cup Potential: 5/5

Spain, with the array of talent within their midst, really should be targeting at least a semi-final, of not a final appearance as their squad is just too strong not to make serious progression in South Africa. The pressure, though, on Spain is massive and it remains to be seen just how the Spain players deal with the intense pressure and the expectations of a nation. They’ve generally faltered on the biggest stage of the lot, in the World Cup, and the fact they’ve never even made a final before is a big concern, although Spain have never had a team as good as this and it would be criminal were they not to go close during the summer.

The Spanish are the favourites to win and rightly so; there odds to win outright underline this, but whether their class will equate into a World Cup victory remains to be seen. For one reason or another, we have our doubts. Remember, this is a country which hasn’t just never won the World Cup before they’ve never even made the final of a World Cup. Even so, stronger claims for the crown than most.

Spain World Cup Betting Odds

Spain to win the World Cup (before the final):      1/2 – Bwin

Before the World Cup the odds on Spain were 17/4 

Official Spain World Cup Squad

Goalkeepers

Iker Casillas (Real Madrid)

Jose Manuel Reina (Liverpool)

Victor Valdes (Barcelona)

Defenders

Raul Albiol (Real Madrid)

Alvaro Arbeloa (Real Madrid)

Joan Capdevila (Villarreal)

Carlos Marchena (Valencia)

Gerard Pique (Barcelona)

Carles Puyol (Barcelona)

Sergio Ramos (Real Madrid)

Midfielders

Xabi Alonso (Real Madrid)

Sergio Busquets (Barcelona)

Francesc Fabregas (Arsenal)

Andres Iniesta (Barcelona)

Javier Martínez (Athletic Bilbao)

David Silva (Valencia)

Xavi (Barcelona)

Jesus Navas (Sevilla)

Strikers

Fernando Torres (Liverpool)

David Villa (Valencia)

Fernando Llorente (Athletic Bilbao)

Juan Manuel Mata (FC Valencia)

Pedro (FC Barcelona)

last update: 18 June 2010

World Cup 2010 Spain Fixtures – Group H

29 June – 19.30 – Round of the last 16: Spain v Portugal: 1-0

03 July – 19.30 – Quarter Finals: Spain v Paraguay: 1-0

07 July – 19.30 – Semi Finals: Spain v Germany

11 July – 19.30 – World Cup Final: Spain v Holland

World Cup 2010 Group H - Table

 World Cup Fixtures and Results

Spain v Netherlands Betting Odds

Spain to win: 11/10 at Bet365
Draw: 5/2 at Bwin
Netherlands to win: 3/1 at Victor Chandler

To Lift the Trophy
Spain: 4/7 at BetFred
Netherlands: 13/8 at Coral

Spain will go into the 2010 FIFA World Cup final without any worries over injury. Not that coach Vicente Del Bosque is one to change up the side very much, and his only decision remains as to whether to insert Fernando Torres back into the starting eleven. Torres, whose club future is under a great deal of speculation after being linked with Chelsea, was left out of the semi final against Germany, due to his lack of form. The Liverpool striker had an injury troubled season, and had to undergo two knee surgeries before South Africa 2010. Del Bosque had persevered with the striker, giving him plenty of time to play his way into form, but dropped Torres for Barcelona striker Pedro. Pedro was lively and injected extra pace where Torres has been wasteful with chances and in possession. It is expected that Torres will get the start, simply because of his experience, and Arsenal’s Cesc Fabregas is reportedly fully fit after being injured during training, but he was not used in the semi final. Spain will again look to David Villa for their goals, as he has scored 5 of their 7 goals in the tournament, or 71% of their goals if you want a look at it that way.

For Holland coach Bert van Marwijk, there could be a couple of changes from the semi final. Van Marwijk was without preferred holding midfielder Nigel de Jong and full back Gregory van der Wiel for their semi final win over Uruguay, because of suspensions. They will both probably come straight back into the side in replace of Demy De Zeeuw Khalid Boulahrouz respectively. De Zeeuw’s chin met with the boot of a Uruguay player in the semi final, and after concerns that his jaw had been broken, it was discovered that there was no break, but his teeth were damaged. His inclusion is doubtful, especially with De Jong coming back into being available. Key man for Holland Wesley Sneijder reported a problem with his calf, but both he and goalkeeper Maarten Stekelenburg have both been pronounced fit to go on Sunday. Apart from that, Holland should be able to field their strongest starting eleven, and will hope that they will be able to dig deep and take their chances against the Spanish, in the World Cup Final. The Netherlands have scored 12 goals in the tournament, with goals coming from six different players. It would be something for Dutch defender Andrew Ooijer if he gets onto the pitch, as he celebrates his birthday on July 11.

2010 FIFA World Cup Final Facts
One of the sides will be the eighth nation to win the World Cup, the Final of which is being played at Soccer City Stadium in Johannesburg. It will also be the first time that a European nation has won the trophy outside of their own continent.  The Stadium as at the heart of South African football, and it has hosted some famous events in its relatively short history. Kick off is at 19.30 GMT. One person who may finish off Sunday with a whole feast of awards for the season, could be Wesley Sneijder, the Inter Milan player won the Coppa Italia, the Champions League and the Serie A title with his club, and he is also in line for both the Golden Boot and the Golden Ball awards. His performance at the World Cup Final could determine the outcome of those awards, and if he adds the greatest accolade in football by winning the World Cup, it would be some 2010 for him. If Spain are looking at superstitions, then no team has won the World Cup after losing their opening match. This is the fourth time that a team has been in the World Cup final after losing their opening match, but the three previous attempts, by Germany (’82), Argentina (’90) and Italy (‘94) each fell in the Final after opening their campaigns with a loss. Spain and the Netherlands have never met at the World Cup, nor the European Championships.
 

Spain v Holland Betting Odds

Spain to win: 23/20 at Victor Chandler
Draw: 12/5 at Totesport
Holland to win: 11/4 at Totesport

Spain

It is what nearly two years of preparation have led to, the World Cup Final between Spain and Holland. While the strong Spaniards were expected to be in the finals, there was always an air of mystery about whether Holland would have the right mental fortitude to make it all the way through to the finals. Now, after a very strong showing by the South American nations, the European nations dominated the semi finals, and for Spain, it took a very un-Spanish like goal to see them through to the finals. After neatly playing their wonderful passing game, and taking short corner after short corner against Germany in their semi final match, Spain eventually found a way through with a cross into the box which defender Carles Puyol netted with his head. The move summed up the patience of Spain perfectly. All through the match, against a German side which had shown how ruthless they can be, Spain kept their football on the ball, as resisted the temptation to throw balls into the box from corners, simply because of the height and strength of the German defenders. One switched play however, caught the German defence off guard and Spain were into the finals. It is just reward for the European Champions, who have slowly grown in stature all through their 2010 World Cup campaign.

No, the start was not ideal for them, as they lost their opening match to Switzerland, but it was a result which did not hurt them either. It was a real wake up call for the pre-tournament favourites, and it illustrated to the Spanish, just how patient they were going to have to be in breaking down teams which set up completely defensively in front of them. That same trend has pretty much followed Spain all through their tournament, but what Spain do better than any team in the world, is slowly and patiently chip away at their opposition in order to get that break though. For all of their offensive power in the squad, Spain simply have not been going out and steam-rollering teams. Ever since their last group match win, a 2-1 victory over Chile, Spain have won all of their matches by a single goal, with Barcelona striker David Villa usually being the hero. It has been enough to see the Spaniards through time and time again, and the resolve that has been shown from that surprise opening feat, has probably been the biggest asset to coach Vicente Del Bosque. It is often hard for teams going into tournaments as favourites to live up to expectations, largely down to inflated confidence. But that will have been obliterated in the defeat to the Swiss, and humility can be a great tool for learning. The only way for Spain after that, was forward.

Spain do not change their personnel very much and they certainly do not change the way they play. Even going up against the Germans, who were scoring freely throughout the tournament including putting four past England and Argentina, Spain stuck to the plan which works best for them. They didn’t switch to any kind of defensive mode in order to snuff out the threat from the quick Germans, in fact it was the Germans who paid a lot respect to the Spanish and sat back. Any team which takes on Spain are going to have to cede a lot of possession. That is the Spanish way, keeping the ball and making passes all across the pitch, patiently waiting for that opening. The main orchestrator of this is Xavi, who does a lot of unseen work in comparison to the likes of Villa and Iniesta, but he pulls all of the strings in the middle of the park. If something is happening, then the likelihood is that he was at the origin of the move. Do the Spanish have what it takes to create some history and win the World Cup for the first time in their history? It really does feel like it would be now or never for this wonderful Spanish side. The only way they should be able to not get their hands on the title now, would be to blow it through over confidence and conceitedness. But you feel that any hints of that were wiped out by the defeat by the Swiss. Losing may just have won the World Cup for Spain.

Del Bosque started with Pedro up front instead of out of form Fernando Torres, to many people’s surprise. Pedro was incredibly lively and a lot sharper in all aspects of his play than Torres has shown throughout the tournament. Now Del Bosque has to decide whether to stick with the young Pedro, who squandered an incredible opportunity to make it 2-0 to the Spaniards against Germany, or go with the experience of Torres. The leaning is towards the latter, as experience counts for a great deal in the biggest occasions of world football. But Pedro brought a whole new level of energy to the Spanish side, helping out wonderfully on the right hand side in doubling up with impressive right back Sergio Ramos. Now all Spain have to do, is put on another perfect 90 minutes of football, and even if it is just that one goal from David Villa, or whether Torres pops up with a winner, it is all that Spain will need. For more than just an attacking team, Spain are incredibly hard working off the ball. It may be something again which goes unnoticed, but they are tough to break down. Firstly because it is so hard to get the ball off them and to make breaks, but that have one of the best centre half pairings in the world in Gerard Pique and Carles Puyol. Breaking through there is one of the toughest jobs in football at the moment. Spain will rightly start as favourites to be the new named etched in the World Cup history. It is hard to bet against them.

Holland

What can Holland do to stop Spain? Coach Bert Van Marwijk has to take a great deal of credit where many Dutch coaches have failed before. He has not built a particularly spectacular looking side, certainly not of the level of quality of Brazil and Spain in terms of technical ability, but he has perhaps done something more important. He has kept the peace in the Dutch camp, and has united a team which has been infamous for rifts and falling apart under pressure at tournament football. The old Dutch beast threatened to raise its head again during South Africa 2010 when Arsenal striker Robin Van Persie was complaining about being substituted. That blew over pretty quickly, as Van Marwijk played down the incident and was happy to start with Van Persie in the next match. The Arsenal striker was against substituted, but he left the field of play this time with his head quietly hung instead of making a scene. That is perhaps indicative of the mentality that the Dutch have at this tournament. They are together as individuals and that has been the big difference this time around.

Frankly, the Dutch are not as good as the Spanish. That is clear to see in following the action from South Africa 2010, but the Dutch are a solid unit which have been getting the job done. They have needed a lot of luck to get where they are, with Wesley Sneijder getting a lucky goal against Brazil and again in the semi final against Uruguay, which broke the resistance of both teams. While Holland have won all of their games at the 2010 FIFA World Cup, they have not played to the high expectation which was expected from them. Their free flowing confident game has been a little subdued, and certainly getting Arjen Robben back from injury was a major boon for them. He, along with Inter Milan’s Wesley Sneijder is the attacking dimension of the team, and where all of their strengths are. Without them, it is hard to see where the creativity is coming from, and if they are starved of the ball, which they should be against the Spaniards, they will naturally find it hard to make an impact. Without them, the hopes of the Netherlands will rapidly fade, and therefore it will be interesting to see how coach Van Marwijk deals with this problem. Will they simply sit back like Germany did, and look to quickly hit the Spanish on the break. It is something which the Dutch have done in the tournament already, but Spain are so good, not many of those breaks come your way.

All in all, this is Holland’s big day, but their 3-2 victory over Uruguay in the semi finals, showed that they are perhaps a little more vulnerable than the Spanish. The two sides have never met in the World cup finals, and at South Africa 2010, there will definitely be a new name on the trophy. Other records from World Cup history have fallen already, and another one will be the fact that for the first time, a European nation will lift the trophy outside of their own continent. Holland or Spain? Holland will know that they are underdogs, and looking around at World Cup betting tips, everything is leaning towards Spain fulfilling their destiny of being both European and World champions. In order for Holland to get their hands anywhere near the trophy, they will need to tread the thin line between confidence in attack, and displaying a stalwart defence. If they can get a goal early, meaning that they come out and really take the game to the Spaniards in the early stages, then they will have a better chance. Spain will naturally come on to them, and the counter attack may again be the best weapon for the Dutch. They do not have the quality in the midfield that Spain do thought, and that means they must hustle the Spanish players, something the Dutch aren’t great at, and make the most of the opportunities which come their way.

Spain v Holland Betting Tips & Prediction

Prediction (who will win): Spain to win by one goal 13/5 at Bet365

To Lift Trophy
Spain: 4/7 at Bet365
Holland: 6/4 at Bet365

Current World Cup Final Holland v Spain Odds:

Spain v Germany Betting Stats

Over Under 2.5 Goals
If, like most punters, stats are your thing, we will explore them here for the Germany v Spain World Cup Semi Final. Let’s look at the goal scoring threat of both sides to start. With Torres not contributing anything but wasted chances, Spain are relying heavily on David Villa for goals, who has netted all but one of the nation’s goals at the World Cup. While Spain have been stuttering, there is the quality there to step up a gear, and they are arguably the best side in the world at the moment. Do they look as if they have three goals in them? Against a good side, not really. They have not been that dominating in terms of creating clear cut chances, even though they always dominate possession. Germany in contrast have been scoring for fun. Germany are on a 2.60 average goals per game, while Spain are averaging a far less at just 1.20. This means that goals should be fully expected from the Germans who have been potent in front of goal, largely thanks to their strength and ruthlessness in going on the break. Miroslav Klose is the main man which they will go to of course, and they will be missing Thomas Mueller who has hit four during the tournament, which is a huge blow to them. Still, add together the goals averages and you should be pretty safe going over, as both sides could have plenty of goals in them. Semi final’s usually don’t produce three goals, but records are tumbling at South Africa 2010. Looking at the four World Cups prior to South Africa 2010, only 2 of the eight matches made it to the three goals. Well worth a punt here though:
Spain V Germany Over 2.5 Goals: 6/5 at Bet365

World Cup History for Match Odds
Germany have the edge over Spain in World Cup meetings, having won two of their three encounters, with the other one having ended in a draw. For the record, here is the World Cup history between the two nations:
1994 Group Match: Germany 1, Spain 1
1982 Second Round: Germany 2, Spain 1
1966 Group Match: Germany 2, Spain 1
This is a tough match to call as Germany are the most explosive side at South Africa 2010, but Spain will likely dominate all of the possession. "Paul the Octopus" in Germany predicted a Spanish victory, so whether you want to go with an octopus or from form guides and stats, Spain are still the favourites to win the match, but the question will be who will have the more firepower at the end of the day, and that, at the moment, appears to be Germany.
Spain to win: 7/4 at Bwin
Draw: 23/10 at Ladbrokes
Germany to win: 15/8 at Boylesports

To Qualify:
Spain are tipped to go through, but really, what would be more enticing that a Germany v Holland World Cup final. You may think that England are Germany’s old foes, but if you have spent time in Germany, and I can speak from experience, you will be told that the Dutch are their main rivals. Likewise Germany is pretty much at the top of the Dutch hit list, so that final would stir up some fantastic rivalries. In many ways, this should be the final, with Spain being a fantastically accomplished and experienced teams, up against the young German upstarts. The bookmakers again only just lean towards Spain in this market, showing how close the two teams are. So therefore, the next market may be a better option. If you like your historical stats, then Spain have never been to the World Cup finals (this is their first time in the semi’s) whereas Germany have been to the Final seven times. They also have four semi final defeats under their belt, including at Germany 2006 against Portugal.
Spain: 18/19 at Bwin
Germany: Evens at Totesport

Draw No Bet
Whoever you plump for, going for the Draw No Bet option will bring you shorter odds than outright betting, but at least it gives you coverage. You’ll probably have a preference already in your mind as to who you want to win, but getting a stake refund for them drawing at the end of ninety minutes appeals to a lot of people. Again, there is little to chose between the two teams on this one, but for a World Cup semi finals, taking Evens for both is pretty good odds. Only two of the last eight World Cup semi final matches have gone to extra time.
Germany – Evens at Boylesports
Spain – Evens at Bwin

Correct Score
This is always an interesting, yet difficult market to call. For this one, the best guide is to look at results between the two teams, and results through the tournament. It’s worth looking at the average goals scored first off, and with Germany’s at 2.60 and Spain’s at 1.20, so it seems like a 2-1 victory for Germany would be a pretty safe bet here. It’s a decent price to snap up as well, hovering around 10/1 at most online bookmakers. On the flip side of that, both sides have only conceded two goals each during the tournament, which means that while there really is an enormous amount of potential for a lot of goals in this match, the defences of both teams are pretty solid and tight, which will keep the count down. 2-1 is always a great scoreline to plump with when looking through correct score markets, and bear in mind that two of the last three encounters between Germany v Spain in the World Cup have ended in a 2-1 victory for the Germans. Spain did beat Germany 1-0 in the final of Euro 2008 of course, but the German side is much changed since then.
Germany 2-1: 10/1 at SkyBet
Other best priced options:
Draw 1-1: 11/2 at Boylesports
Spain 1-0: 7/1 at 888Sport
Germany 1-0: 15/2 at Blue Square
Draw 0-0: 8/1 at Bet365
Spain 2-1: 10/1 at Victor Chandler
Spain 2-0: 12/1 at 888Sport
Germany 2-0: 14/1 at Blue Square

To win on Penalties
We like a good penalty shoot out. There is no better drama in football, as long as your nation is not participating, or your bet is hinging on it. Germany of course are the penalty kick kings, have won all four of their shoot outs in World Cup history. Their last one came in the Quarter Finals of Germany 2006 where they beat Argentina 4-2. The other three teams which have fallen to Germany on penalties at the World Cup, is Mexico, France and of course, England. Spain however, are not faring quite as well, having only won 1 out 3 World Cup shoot outs. Their first failure was against Belgium in ‘86 and their last was sent them crashing out of the 2002 World Cup when they lost 3-5 to South Korea in the Quarter Finals. Their only success came in the round previous to that in 2002, when they beat the Republic of Ireland 3-2. You would back Germany in a penalty shoot out.
Germany – 9/1 at Paddy Power
Spain – 9/1 at Paddy Power

Anytime Goalscorer
It is always worth looking at this market as opposed to First Goalscorer, as your odds are lower but realistically you have a little more chance of landing a winner. It is well worth simply backing the strikers in this market, and when you look at tournament David Villa going for around 4/1 it is not to be sniffed at. While Villa is pretty much a one man goal machine for Spain, don’t discount their attacking midfielders, as there is some serious quality in there when it comes to goals, so look at Iniesta and Xavi to get in on the act. It could be a midfield break which splits this tie wide open. For Germany, all of their midfield and attack look to have goals in them, but Klose is the main man for them, with Podolski and Oezil the most likely candidates to get in on the action.
David Villa: 9/2 at Bwin
Miroslav Klose: 13/2 at Bet365
Fernando Torres: 13/2 at Bwin
Fernando Llorente: 8/1 at Bet365
No Goalscorer: 8/1 at SkyBet
Lukas Podolski: 8/1 at Stan James
Mesut Oezil: 14/1 at Totesport
Andres Iniesta: 14/1 at Bet365
Xavi: 16/1 at BetFred

Let’s look at a Villa v Klose Head to Head

Germany v Spain Asian Handicap
Always a great market to explore. Why? Because you get extra coverage for your money, as you can back a loser and still win. The teams and World Cup odds for the Spain v Germany semi final are pretty tight, so you are not going to find too extravagant odds in this market, unless you think Germany is going to run up another goal fest for example. You will need to stray out towards a handicap of two to get some serious prices going, but you’ll need to ask yourself how realistic that will be? Are Germany two goals better than Spain, or vice-versa? As to be expected, both teams for 0 Asian Handicap are around Evens, same as most other prices, so it’s not really dabbling into that. So where are the best prices at? Looking in the minus as the teams are closely matched, bookmakers are not going to give nice prices in giving a team an advantage. You will find better odds on the Germans in the minus, as Spain slightly edge things in terms of betting. Whichever way you lean, just ask yourself how many goals you think either team will win by. If its going to be close, then a price of Spain -1 for 17/5 at Bet365 is a pretty decent price. That brings a stake refund for Spain winning by 1 goal, and a full priced win if they win by 2 clear goals. Germany at -0.75 for 47/20 at Bet365 is a decent price as well, and that will give a half win for Germany winning by 1 goal, and a full win for them winning by 2 goals. The Asian Handicap market is always worth dipping into, and however strongly you fancy Spain or Germany to win by, you can back your margin for some good prices.

World Cup 2010 Castrol Index Ranking (which analyses overal performance)
1) Philipp Lahm (GER 9.79)
2) Sergio Ramos (ESP 9.74)
3) Gerard Pique (ESP 9.70)
4) Joan Capdevila (ESP 9.66)
5) David Villa (ESP 9.62)

Germany v Spain Betting Odds

Germany to win: 19/10 at William Hill
Draw: 23/10 at Bwin
Spain to win: 7/4 at Victor Chandler

To Qualify:
Spain – 18/19 at Bwin
Germany – Evens at SkyBet

World Cup 2010 Semi Final
Date: Wednesday, July 7th
Kick Off: 19.30 GMT

Spain

Spain v Germany is a repeat of the Euro 2008 final, which the Spaniards won, finally putting to bed their major criticism about not being able to step up to the plate in tournament football. Spain became European Champions thanks to a goal by Fernando Torres, who is having troubled times at the World Cup. Spain came into the 2010 FIFA World Cup as outright favourites, but their path to the final has not been plain sailing. After famously suffering a first match defeat against Switzerland, Spain needed to rally themselves in order to get through. They have made it to the semi finals as expected, but not in the manner they expected. They have scored just six goals in their five matches, with five of them coming from star striker David Villa. David Villa is 13/10 at Bwin as Anytime Scorer in the Germany v Spain semi final. While we have all seen the brilliance and top form of Germany, Brazil and Argentina at the World Cup at some point, Spain have not quite delivered. Perhaps the shaky start dented their confidence a little bit, and while they are capable of putting on a show in front of the watching world, they have not. If you take David Villa out of the equation, there has been little genuine penetration up front from Spain, apart from Andres Iniesta. Spain were out muscled and out worked in their Quarter Final match against Paraguay, a match in which they should have found themselves behind in at half time, but for a wrongly disallowed goal for the South Americans after striker Nelson Valdez was flagged offside before putting the ball past Iker Casillas. The final execution has not been there, and the Spaniards have been guilty on more than one occasion of over-complicating simple things. They look as if they are trying just a little too hard.

It is understandable with the weight of expectation upon their shoulders. Spain’s last three victories have been by just one goal, where they were expected to go out and steam roller their way over teams. If you expect that trend to continue, Spain to win by 1 goal is 10/3 at Bet365. The dominance in front of goal hasn’t happened, because, as Paraguay showed, the Spaniards are not quite as solid throughout the team as perhaps they were expected to be. Paraguay did a fantastic job of hassling the Spaniards out of possession and disrupting their natural passing game, making Spain look really off colour. It is the same thing which Chile did against the Spaniards, and was working well until they gave away a goal in their final group match. It is the same thing which Portugal did, and the Spaniards were stopped from playing their game. Tough tackling in the middle of the park, and defending high up the pitch in pressuring the Spanish back line when they have the ball, cuts of the supply line to their forwards. The ball was not coming out of the back well, and therefore the Spanish midfield never really got a firm grip on the game. But to their credit, their collective will and team spirit have seen them overcome their trials and tribulations without ever finding their rhythm.

Coach Vicente Del Bosque knows that his team have yet to hit their peak, and while that may be worrying him, at the same time it may give him a lot of confidence knowing that there may be more to come. Spain are a team which need possession, and that is what the South Americans did not give them, at least not any quality possession. The Spain v Germany semi final is a match which may take on a different picture though, as the Germans will not be as compact as Spain’s South American opponents. The Germans like to play a high tempo game, almost in a frenetic English Premier League style, but with a little more class and conviction. While the success of the Germans have been unexpected, there will be no surprises in the way that Spain play. They are very patient on the ball with some of the most technically gifted players with the ball at their feet. Xavi and Iniesta especially stand out as world class players, whether dribbling or picking out a pass. They are the fulcrum of the team, and those are the key players which Germany will need to keep quiet. They will also naturally need to watch out for in from David Villa, who makes such an impact from standing out on the left hand touch line and launching attacks from there. Spain are a quality side, even though they have not hit their top form. Perhaps that is the most ominous thing about them, that they could explode at any moment. All of their main threats are coming from Villa, who will be lining up against German captain Philip Lahm at right back. That is just one of the key battles, with the other being how much Bastian Schweinsteiger can keep Xavi quiet. Spain have all of the class and control, do they have the mental toughness now to take on the tournaments’ most in form team?

Germany

Germany are arguably the best team in the World Cup, simply because they are playing fearless football. Coach Joachim Loew is reaping the benefits of nearly a half a billion Euro investment in the youth of Germany a decade ago. This was their response to failures in tournaments, and the German FA responded with aggression. Germany are a young side, largely built around the successful Under 21 side, and the young players have shown no problems in making the step up to the full team. There is still a good core of experienced heads in the team, notably top scorer Miroslav Klose and Bastian Schweingsteiger, who is again proving to be one of the best players at the tournament. Miroslav Klose is 2/1 at Paddy Power as Anytime Goalscorer for the Spain v Germany semi final. One wonders if the pace of the German game is down to the injury to veteran Captain Michael Ballack, who was injured before the tournament. He is someone who will slow games down by putting his foot on the ball, but the Germans at the 2010 FIFA World Cup have simply been going straight for the throats of their opponents. There has been not dallying on the ball, it is getting forward at every opportunity, and not being afraid to throw the numbers up in attack. This is a philosophy and approach which works very well when you have young legs to track up and down the pitch all afternoon. Germany to win by one goal is 7/2 at SkyBet

Germany’s Tomas Mueller will be a sad omission from the Spain v Germany semi final, as the creative and dynamic midfielder has been one of the particular bright sparks. He goals he has scored at South Africa 2010 have been the first ones in his young career, giving him a tally of four goals in seven appearances. He only made his full international debut in March during an international friendly against Argentina. Mueller picked up a very harsh yellow card in their quarter final demolition of Argentina, having received it for a supposed deliberate hand ball, which looked anything but. That will rob the Germans of one of their most influential players, but they are still packed with quality and youth going forward. Their 4-2-3-1 formation is something that is working a treat, and Joachim Low has picked players to fit into that formation perfectly. This is not about squeezing players into a team because of who they are, this is building a team which is designed to play a certain way, and Low is picking players who can do specific jobs. That old German efficiency is proving one of their strong points, as well as watching all of the players fight for their team, and do their specific jobs. Loew had stated before their clash with Argentina in the quarter finals, that he had spotted weaknesses in the Argentinean game, things which not many other people had seen. Germany’s ability to break quickly with one touch passing, exploited the weakness of Argentina’s lack of willingness to get their forwards back to help out in defence. The German midfield, notably Schweinsteiger, did a fantastic job of negating the threat of Lionel Messi. Not an easy job, but the sublime number ten simply drifted out of the game, and Argentina could not get the ball forward to Higuain and Tevez. Germany hit the Argentineans hard with a  4-0 victory, their second victory of the 2010 FIFA World Cup by that scoreline.

That is thirteen goals in just five games, and contrast that against Spain’s six. You will see where the bigger attacking threat lies. Germany v Spain will see two teams, two rivals come together which like to keep the ball. If  Spain get deprived of possession again, they will know that Germany pose a much bigger threat in going forward than most of their opponents so far. Del Bosque will have seen how well the Germans completely snuffed out Argentina, who play a very similar style to Spain, so the coach may have a little rethink to do. His main decision will be to stick with the ineffective Fernando Torres or not, or perhaps go with Cesc Fabregas. Fabregas is undergoing a scan on his shoulder after falling awkwardly, but Del Bosque does have other options, in Fernando Llorente or the exciting youngster Pedro. They also have David Silva or Jesus Navas who can come in if they want more men in midfield, so Del Bosque is not short of quality on the bench. Few predicted the journey that the Germans have undertaken, and looking full of confidence, technical ability and hunger, and more like a team that what Spain are, they may be able to continue it, and get some revenge for their Euro 2008 final failure. Germany like to play that high tempo, high pressure game, and defending has to be done from the front. Against Spain they will have plenty of space to play their wide game, and it should be a thrilling encounter, and one that Germany are capable of taking. They may have young fresh players, but they have the World Cup pedigree to do so. This is their tenth semi final appearances, this is Spain’s first.

Spain v Germany Betting Prediction:

There is a stark contrast between the two teams and their coaches. Vicente Del Bosque inherited a team of world class superstars, but Joachim Loew has built his team from nothing. Which is the better route to go? Everything Germany do is as a team, attack and defend even though they have individual stars such as Mueller, Oezil and Klose, they are more of a team, more of a unit than Spain. Germany have placed a lot of faith in their youngster, no doubt something which Fabio Capello will be watching with interest. Even if they lose here, their investments will have paid off. There is a lot to be admired about the Germans, and they should be fearless enough to play their game and take out the Spaniards.
Germany 0 Asian Handicap – Evens at Paddy Power

Current World Cup Betting Prices

European Champions Spain have again stretched their legs at the top of the World Cup 2010 betting chart. After coming into the tournament as outright favourites, their less than emphatic run of results, saw their price lengthen in comparison to Brazil and Argentina, who had theirs shortened. Spain though have had the last laugh over the two South American power houses, as they both fell by the wayside in the Quarter Finals, while Spain ambled on unconvincingly to the World Cup Semi Finals. Spain are now back as favourites to win the 2010 FIFA World Cup, and the best price around on them at the moment is Spain 2/1 at SkyBet to be lifting the trophy on July 11th in Johannesburg. They have a mighty tough task in their semi final though, as they take on the tournament’s most exciting and in form team, England’s conquerors, Germany. The Germans have been scoring for fun, and their young, dynamic team have looked very impressive. As they are going head to head with Spain in the Germany v Spain semi final and are not starting as favourites in the World Cup betting for that match, they sit behind Spain in the outright market. There are still worth a good punt though, especially as they are priced at 9/4 with SkyBet. Out of a four horse race, that is not bad at all.

Germany are priced the same as Holland 9/4 at Victor Chandler at the moment. This says even more about Germany, as Holland have the perceived easier task of taking on Uruguay in their semi final. Taking on the favourites Spain, Germany are priced evenly with the Dutch, which suggests, and rightly so, that the Germans are much better than Holland. Out of the four teams which remain in the hunt for the 2010 FIFA World Cup, neither Holland nor Spain have played particularly well. They have been winning their matches, but not playing any world beating football or running out as emphatic winners. Germany on the other hand have been firing goals in, left right and centre, and look a much stronger bet than the two of them. They are not favourites, simply because they are inexperienced compared to Spain, but out of the Spain v Germany semi final, you would realistically expect the winner of the 2010 FIFA World Cup to emerge.

The other team which should not be overlooked, is Uruguay, the last South American team standing. Come the quarter finals, South America looked to be dominating things with four teams left in. However, the Europeans came through strongly to take three of the remaining four spots in the tournament. So Uruguay are left flying the South American flag, and while controversy surrounds their striker Luis Suarez for punching Ghana’s last ditch attempt at a winner off the line, the Uruguayans are fully deserving of their spot in the semi finals. They are a phenomenally hard working team, but not as expansive of exciting to watch as other nations. They are more than capable of beating Holland in their semi final, simply because they have the capacity to outwork the Dutch, but they are now rank outsiders to win the tournament, out at 13/1 at Bwin to win the World Cup. Are they worth a punt? They are the underdogs, but yes, even if you get them down as an each way bet, at the price they are, they are probably worth a dabble.

Here are some 2010 FIFA World Cup Stats to draw some comparisons to help your World Cup Betting.

To Reach World Cup Final Odds
Netherlands: 1/3 at Totesport
Spain: 4/5 at Stan James
Germany: Evens at Totesport
Uruguay: 13/5 at SportingBet

Name the World Cup Finalists
Spain/Holland: 17/11 at Bwin
Germany/Holland: 17/10 at Stan James
Spain/Uruguay: 6/1 at Bet365
Germany/Uruguay: 13/2 at SportingBet

Spain v Paraguay Betting Odds

Spain to win: 1/2 at Bet365
Draw: 31/10 at Boylesports
Paraguay to win: 7/1 at Ladbrokes

Spain

There are signs that Spain are coming good, just at the right time. Probably the best thing which has happened to them at the 2010 FIFA World Cup was getting beaten in their opening match by Switzerland. No-one saw that coming of course, not even the Spaniards themselves, but it will have served a purpose. It will have been a visible and clear warning to Vicente Del Bosque and his men, that even the best sides are not infallible when it comes to football, and that they cannot afford any slip ups. They got their bad game out of the way early, and it will have put a rocket up them. If they were thinking that they were untouchable going into the tournament, then they had to rethink their mental approach to the tournament pretty quickly. They have done that, and pressed on solidly, and with a lot of conviction. There was nothing wrong with their game in the Switzerland defeat, as they have subsequently gone to play in exactly the same manner and at exactly the same tempo as they did in that game. Things just don’t go your way on certain days, and that is all that happened to Spain. That defeat has probably given them an edge over Argentina and Brazil, the other tournament favourites, as Spain have shown that they can respond to adversity. There is usually a moment in tournament football where a team has their backs against the wall. The aforementioned South Americans have not been troubled at all.

Spain had to face a very defensive and negative Portugal side in the last sixteen, and their patience eventually paid off when David Villa hit the winner just after sixty minutes. Spain enjoy throwing their full backs forward with Joan Capdevila and Sergio Ramos being a large part of the attack. It works well in a system in which Xavi and Andres Iniesta roam around on the flanks, and that means they can double up on the wings with the over-lapping full backs. This works as Xabi Alonso and Sergio Busquets control the centre of the midfield, and Alonso gets forward plenty himself, and combine all that with the two strikers on the pitch, and that is why Spain are such a force. They have a lot power going forward, but not only that, they have the ethos of a South American team in that they value the possession of the ball. They are the one team from Europe that can match South American opponents in terms of holding on to the ball and always having a man available. It is a great formation, and the players know it well, as the squad remains pretty much unchanged from the one which won the Euro 2008 Championships. Their star man is David Villa, who has shown why Barcelona were prepared to pay so much money for him. He is ranking among one of the most accomplished forward players in the world, as he drifts in from the left, often standing out hugging the touchline on the left hand side of midfield when Spain have the ball at the back. He covers an enormous amount of ground, and because of the fact that he drops so deep, he is very hard to track.

Spain are keen to keep their feet on the ground, as the hype which surrounds them keeps growing and growing. They do have problems with Fernando Torres not being at his sharpest, but they are more than able to compensate for that. Even when substitutes come on, Spain simply do break stride from their technically brilliant passing game. They play the way that football should be played, on the deck and with short quick passes. They are not afraid to go forward, and that is because they are so comfortable and confident when in possession, they back themselves to keep a hold of the ball. The Spanish defence really has not been tested by any team, and the only problems they have had have been long balls have been pumped down the middle. This is something that they may get from Paraguay, but again in this match, Spain will weigh heavily in the possession charts, and once you start commanding possession, then you are a lot more likely to win the ball. Progression for Spain against Paraguay would mean a semi final showdown against either Argentina or Germany. But is there any hint of an upset coming from Paraguay? Spain will probably need to exert a lot of patience again, and that is something which they do very well. There is no panic, they simply get the ball in the right places and let individual talent do the rest.

Spain World Cup 2010 Stats
Played: W3, D0, L1
GF/GA: 5/2
Cards: Y1, 2Y0, R0
Most Shots:
Top Scorer:
Shots/On Goal: 74/29 (#2 on overall chart)
Fouls Committed: 43
Total Passes: 2803
Passes Complete: 2265 (81% success rate #1 on overall chart)

Paraguay

Paraguay’s Antolin Alcaraz will be a key figure in holding up their defence when they face Spain in their quarter final match. Paraguay are a very well balanced side, all thanks to their very strong defence. Paraguay finished top of their group ahead, and then they played their way past a tight last sixteen match against Japan, winning on a penalty shoot out. Paraguay’s lean defence have only conceded one goal at the tournament so far, and that was goalkeeping error which allowed Italy to equalise during their opening South Africa 2010 group match. They are the next South Americans to take on the European Champions, as Chile attempted and failed against the Spaniards in the group stages. So what can Paraguay bring to the table? It is a little surprising that they are quite as defensive as they are, as they have some very good talent up front. The backbone of their team is the defensive midfielder Nestor Ortigoza who literally does an old fashioned sweeper’s role, but in front of the back four instead of behind hit. This is what makes Paraguay so strong at the back, as he doesn’t venture far from his back four, offering some excellent protection. Paraguay also tend to keep quite narrow on the pitch when they haven’t got the ball, inviting people to go around the outside of them, much in the vein of Uruguay. The South American nations look to have the edge at South Africa 2010, as they have found that fine balance between defence, attack, finesse and muscle. Paraguay are tough side which won’t be giving the big star names of Spain any room for complacency during Saturday’s match.

This is the first time that Paraguay have been at the Quarter Finals of the World Cup and they are not just there to make up the numbers. They are one of four South American representatives, and their third place finish in qualifying from the continent showed just how much they have progressed as a nation. It is because of the strengthening in defence which is making the South Americans so strong, as there is an extra level of competitiveness in them thanks to an arduous qualification campaign. While their defensive systems work so well, none of the South American teams participating at the 2010 FIFA World Cup have been short of firepower. Paraguay actually play three strikers up front, just like Uruguay do, with Roque Santa Cruz and Edgar Benitez (or Nelson Valdez) flanking Lucas Barrios. While everyone has to drop back and help out in the midfield, there is always at least one man left up top to hit with the long ball, something Paraguay do very well. They have two very gifted central midfielders in Enrique Vera and Cristian Riveros. They have a formation which could frustrate Spain, and while the South Americans will be underdogs, they will be chomping at the bit to take on one of the best teams in the World. Paraguay have probably been guilty of not creating too many chances, and their low goal tally of three during the tournament will reflect that. This is why a match against Spain, who won’t play defensively, may just work more in Paraguay’s attacking favour. They will perhaps have just that little extra space to express themselves, something which they didn’t have a lot of against Italy and Japan in particular. Sticking in there is the plan for Paraguay, and the longer they can make a nuisance of themselves, the more they should be able to disrupt Spain and look for openings to take for themselves. Not an easy task, but if they stick to their shape and not panic into pushing forward, then they could give a very good account of themselves. They will have seen Spain struggle for goals against defensive set ups, and just five goals in the tournament for the Spaniards will give Paraguay a great deal of hope.

Paraguay World Cup 2010 Stats
Played: W2, D2, L0
GF/GA: 3/1
Cards: Y5, 2Y0, R0
Most Shots: Nelson Valdez
Top Scorer: Three players, 1
Shots/On Goal: 54/22 (#13 on overall chart)
Fouls Committed: 72
Total Passes: 2019
Passes Complete: 1365 (68% success rate #8 on overall chart)

Spain v Paraguay Betting Prediction: Paraguay +1 Asian Handicap Evens at BetFair

Current Paraguay v Spain Odds:

Spain v Portugal Betting Odds

Spain to win: 11/10 at Bet365
Draw: 9/4 at Totesport
Portugal to win: 10/3 at SkyBet

Spain

The European Champions had more of a battle on their hands to reach the second round of the 2010 FIFA World Cup than expected. After picking themselves up after losing their opening match to Switzerland, Vicente Del Bosque led his squad to the top of the group. After creating a hatful of chances against Honduras and only finishing two of them, they needed a slice of luck in their final outing to beat strong South American challengers Chile to the top of the group. Spain have shown all of the qualities which had instilled them as pre tournament favourites, but there is something just lacking a little bit when you stand them up against the performances of Argentina and Brazil. Maybe they are simply feeling the weight of expectation upon them, and that choke factor is at the back of their minds. The defeat against Switzerland should have shaken them out of that mode, as that would have been something of a wake up call if they thought they were going to breeze through the World Cup. They have won their group as expected, as they have stroked the ball around the pitch as elegantly as Brazil. Have they done enough to show that they really are contenders to lift the title? Maybe not quite yet, but the undeniable talent is there. There are not many other sides left in the tournament who can take off a striker of Fernando Torres’s calibre (albeit he’s not sharp at the moment) and replace him with one of the most talented players in the world, Cesc Fabregas. What other nation would be able to sit Fabregas on the bench at the start of the match? Teams full of superstars often do not pull together as a nation, but Spain have been together for a long time now, and their impressive run of form speaks volumes.

They should be there in the semi finals, and the vital element of winning their group was secured, and everything else that transpired in the group is history. The loss won’t matter any more. The failure to convert scoring chances won’t matter any more. All that will matter is that they get the job done against Portugal. One of Spain’s enduring qualities, is that they are a patient side who will work and work to get the breakthroughs they need without compromising on their passing ethics. They didn’t break stride in upping the tempo against Switzerland, they just could not get the break through. Unbeaten runs are there to be broken. Portugal are on a great unbeaten run of their own under Carlos Queiros, and something will have to give in their second round fixture. The patience that Spain has, and the ability to swap things around with the array of talent they have, means that they are used to breaking down sides who set up defensively against them. When teams played the best sides, whether it is at International or domestic level, the underdogs usually go out with the mindset of trying to stop the better team playing, as opposed to going out and giving it a real go. More often than not, the underdog has to resort to giving it a real go when they find themselves behind anyway. But the passing qualities which Spain have, and the patience and being so comfortable in possession with the likes of Xavi, Iniesta and Alonso around, means that they should be able to break down Portugal. These are the games the European champions are expecting, running out to face tough defensive challenges. Is there a better side in the tournament in having the qualities to break down those defences? If David Villa continues to fire, then it will be made all that much easier.

Portugal

They really are all about one man, and that man is of course Cristiano Ronaldo. He is the engine room, the inspiration and goal getter, and despite his calls to his countrymen not to have to rely on him, they are, and they do. While Ronaldo can take on teams single handedly, having such as superstar in your side can often back fire, for when he is cancelled and marked out of the match, the rest of the team does not have much to fall back on. This is the problem for Portugal, who have turned into a very cautious and negative side. Many will remember the attacking football which the Portuguese showed in knocking England out of Euro 2004 and the 2006 World Cup. That attacking side have long since departed, and as displayed in their battling qualification group to reach South Africa 2010, the priority was on defence. Somewhere along the line, attack got sacrificed, which is a bit of a crime when you have Cristiano Ronaldo in the side. Just as pre-World Cup 2010 Argentina were guilty of not using Lionel Messi properly, Portugal do not play to the strengths of Cristiano Ronaldo. Playing such as tight game, he does not have the space and freedom he enjoyed at Manchester United and enjoyed in the second half of his first season at Real Madrid.

Portugal have played out two very negative and dull 0-0 draws so far, coming against the Ivory Coast and Brazil. Against the Ivory Coast, they simply lost their way and lacked any kind of spark or imagination. Against Brazil they put out a five man midfield to try and cope with, and negate the threat of the South Americans. In what should have been a real show case of football, it instead petered out into dour midfield battle with no-one having any real space to play. That was what Portugal wanted and the kind of performance that you will probably see again against Spain. With their World Cup lifeline now at stake in the knockout, it is hard to see Portugal getting any more adventurous. Their defence holding out for as long as possible is the key to success, and the longer they can keep things at parity, without having to chase the game in terms of goals, the more they will grow in confidence of nicking that all important goal themselves.

Spain v Portugal betting tip: Cristiano Ronaldo anytime goal scorer 9/4 at Paddy Power
 

Current Spain V Portugal Odds: