world cup

While qualification places are still being battled for, it is a good time to get in on some early betting action for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. The fields are a little bit limited at the moment, but that does not mean there are not some good opportunities to get your money down. All the fun, excitement and thrills of picking winners can be done, before the opening match. With qualification going on all across the world, there are plenty of opportunities to get some keen, early action.

Outright Winner
This is the ultimate early bird selection. There will be clear favourites, and it will be no surprise that Brazil is right up there already, and Spain is leading the European charge. Both can be had already at around 5/1 at Coral and PaddyPower, so an each way bet on both would not steer you too far wrong. With a lot of time and a lot of football, both domestic and international matches to be played between now and the opening match, there are a lot of variables to take into consideration. Star players may fall foul of injury, some rising star may crawl from out of the woodwork, and the form of teams will vary greatly as the friendly matches pile up before the tournament, with managers experimenting with their line-ups. The outright winner of the World Cup will be from a select group, ones with a lot of World Cup pedigree. Brazil, Argentina, Spain, Germany, Italy, England and France all have good traditions, and in all likelihood, nothing outside of the six or seven favourites as listed by the bookies will pose a serious threat. Remember that Burkina Faso is listed at 5000/1 for a reason.

Group Qualification
This is where the fun could really be had. With just a handful of matches left for each team in the qualifying stages, the layout of the groups are fairly clear to see, with regards as to who will be finishing in first and second place. This is a good chance to double up some bets and get some accumulators going. Europe is a good stomping ground for group betting, with 9 groups on the market. There is not a lot of point picking clear group leaders like England, Spain and the Netherlands, but a lot of the groups, like Group 2 for example has a close three way race for the lead. If you can gauge the run in of matches, paying close attention to home and away form, you could pick an outsider to pinch top spot.

Group Outright Winners
As above, most Bookmakers will only be targeting the battle going on in Europe for the top place in the group. Fortunately if you did not get any money on your team at the outset of the qualifying stages, then there is still plenty of completion going on, even in these latter stages. Some of the groups are out of commission and are not worth betting on, but there are close races upon which money can be made.

Qualification
If you want to branch out a little further in your pre World Cup 2010 betting stakes, then you can always just ignore the group standings and go for the teams which will just be qualifying. This can involve teams just to qualify for the World Cup, so it is worth studying the format of the group stages in the different zones. The qualifying stages differ a little with regards to how many teams go through from that initial stage. A lot of teams, again, especially in Europe, may have to face a sudden death, two-legged play-off in order to qualify.

Once the tournament places are settled, there will of course be more exciting markets opening for you. You will be able to pick the tournament’s top goal scorer, the winners of the group stages of the World Cup itself, the teams which will qualify from the first round and of course, bets on the outcome of the individual matches. This is where the real action begins. Individual match betting itself opens up a plethora of sub-category bets, from first scorer, to last scorer, to predicting the half time and full time scores, to the number of yellow cards, the number of corners, any time goal scorers, to first scorer and correct score combinations. A lot of the matches will have live betting if you have access to the internet and your favourite betting site, while watching the games and this will add to the whole atmosphere of the World Cup 2010.

At one stage, David Villa went as short as 1.55 on betfair to be the leading goalscorer at the World Cup, although his failure to score against Germany means that the Barcelona new boy is level on goals with Wesley Sneijder ahead of the final in Johannesburg.

Two weeks before the tournament, Blue Square were offering a generous 9/1 about Villa following his high-scoring success in Euro 2008 by landing the spoils in 2010. They also had each-way terms of ¼ first 5 places, although Spain’s opening game defeat against Switzerland saw their star striker matched at odds of around 20/1 on betfair.

Going into this final weekend of the World Cup, Villa is still favourite (10/11 bet365), although he has plenty of competition for the much-coveted award which is often won by a player who isn’t part of the victorious team.

Sneijder was an amazing 100/1 with Ladbrokes before the action got under way, although the Dutchman had done brilliantly with Inter last season and has played in an advanced position for most of the competition. After the group stages, the midfielder has only scored one goal and that saw odds of over 400/1 being matched on betfair, especially as his team looked like going out against Brazil.

However, FIFA’s decision to award Sneijder both goals against the Selecao saw the bookmakers cutting the odds on the Netherlands player winning the Golden Shoe. He’s now into 3/1 with Ladbrokes and if he remains tied for a share of the lead with Villa, then the bookmakers will pay out half your stake at 3/1 so you would still make a profit.

Nevertheless, the pair have Miroslav Klose breathing down their necks and the Germany striker needs no extra motivation when he takes to the field at Port Elizabeth on Saturday night. The Bayern Munich player needs one more goal to equal Ronaldo’s all-time World Cup goal record and two more to re-write history! While the World Cup final is likely to be low-scoring, the same cannot be said of the 3rd-place play-off if recent history is anything to go by.

Klose is 11/2 (Victor Chandler) to win the Golden Shoe four years after winning the prize during the 2006 World Cup and there are two more reasons for thinking this bet could yield a profit. Firstly, as this match is a ‘friendly’, he might expect team-mates to supply him with more ammunition (including any penalties that are awarded to Germany). Secondly, Uruguay conceded three goals to the Netherlands in the semi-final and looked pretty jaded towards the end of the game.

With Thomas Muller back from suspension, Klose can reward those punters that backed him at 33/1 before the World Cup kicked off, although the former has an outside chance (14/1 Victor Chandler) of landing the prize himself. The youngster also has four goals to his name and will be fresh from sitting out Wednesday’s match.

Diego Forlan is the final name in the mix, as he has been ever since that brace against South Africa during the group stages. Victor Chandler offer 16/1 that the Uruguayan walks off with the Golden Shoe, although he claimed after the Netherlands semi-final that he wasn’t 100% fit and manager Oscar Tabarez might use the occasion to use some fresh legs.

Perhaps there might be one or two members of Stan James’ marketing team in hot water after Spain booked their place in the 2010 World Cup final on Wednesday! Carlos Puyol’s bullet header from a corner put La Furia Roja into a lead that they did not relinquish and that will please the many customers who were placing their outright bets with this bookmaker before the competition started.

That’s because Stan James had a promotion where all losing outright stakes will be refunded as a free bet if Spain were to win the World Cup. This bookmaker must have thought they were on to a winner after a) the Spanish lost to Switzerland in the opening game and b) Paraguay missed a late penalty against them in the quarter final. However, with the European champions now a best price 4/7 (William Hill) it looks as though the firm will be coughing up.

On the other hand, bet365 will have been pleased with their Penalty Payback promotion, which has only see them refund losing bets on Japan and Ghana so far. One can’t imagine that there was a big weight of money on these two teams and one of the world’s leading firms must have been prepared for at least one big team to go out on spot-kicks. Perhaps we’ll see another World Cup final go through 120 minutes without producing a winner…

Indeed, if you think that the 2010 World Cup final might go to penalties, then Victor Chandler are offering to refund all losing First Goalscorer, Correct Score, Scorecast & Double Result (HT/FT) bets on the match as a free bet if we see spot kicks. Four years ago, France and Italy played out a draw before the Azzurri triumphed in the most dramatic way imaginable. The same bookmaker are running the promotion for the 3rd place play-off, although there is less chance of this happening on Saturday.

Bet365, Paddy Power and Blue Square have also been running with a similar 0-0 cashback offer throughout the World Cup and it’s another promotion where they haven’t had to cough up too much back to the punters. There hasn’t been a single goalless draw during the knockout stages as we have seen far more open encounters than many people were predicting, even with a match ball that has attracted much criticism. The last refund that this promotion yielded was when Brazil faced Portugal in the final Group G match.

Finally, the world seems to be going crazy for Pulpo Paul, the German psychic octopus at the moment. After correctly predicting that Spain would beat Germany on Wednesday, people are curious to see whether the amazing record continues. Bet Fred offer odds of 15/8 that the eight-legged creature picks out winners in both of the weekend matches, 11/8 that he gets one selection right and 2/1 that he gets both his picks wrong!

Before the start of the World Cup, Spain were no bigger than 7/2 to win the competition and although they have reached Sunday’s final, Vicente Del Bosque’s team certainly haven’t done things the easy way. An opening game defeat by Switzerland saw La Furia Roja drift out to 6/1 on the outright market and it appeared that a potential last sixteen clash with Brazil was on the cards.

However, Spain regained their composure after that early slip-up and now stand on the verge of greatness. It wasn’t until that last sixteen victory over Portugal that the team went shorter than the 7/2 that had been on offer at the beginning of June and they were still quoted at 2/1 before their semi-final against Germany. However, William Hill now offer a best price 4/7 that they become the eighth team to win the World Cup.

It’s been an amazing journey for the Spanish team, who are victims of their own success. Due to the way that they keep possession and try to work openings, it means that the opposition naturally get men behind the ball and go on to the back foot, something that a previously attack-minded Germany were doing on Wednesday night.

It will be interesting to see whether the Netherlands end up employing the same tactics, especially as Arjen Robben is not someone who naturally tracks back to help his team defend. Germany’s success in the World Cup was founded on Lukas Podolski and Thomas Muller trotting back to help out the full-backs and the Dutch instead rely on two midfield enforcers by the name of Mark van Bommel and Nigel de Jong.

Nevertheless, Holland were equally as impressive as their opponents when qualifying for the tournament and they have maintained that 100% record in South Africa. The Dutch were on offer at around 12/1 on betfair’s outright market before a series of impressive friendly displays saw their odds cut before they had played a single game. Italy’s failure in Group F led to the Netherlands making the quarter finals reasonably easily, although the game against Brazil saw them trailing at half-time.

At this point in proceedings, you could have backed Holland at around 23/1 on betfair to win the World Cup and there was little in that performance at Port Elizabeth which suggested that the Oranje were potential winners of this tournament. However, you need luck to win any cup competition and the Brazilians were happy to shoot themselves in the foot due to lack of concentration when defending set pieces and ill discipline.

Therefore, Bert van Marwijk’s team are 6/4 (Paddy Power) to triumph at the World Cup for the first time and they will probably watch videos of how Switzerland managed to stop Spain in Durban three weeks ago. Coral offer 11/4 that they follow the blueprint of Ottmar Hitzfeld and win in ninety minutes and they do have three excellent counter-attacking players in Robin Van Persie, Wesley Sneijder and Arjen Robben.

Quite simply, this is a huge game of football and many people will have wished this contest to be the World Cup final on Sunday. It’s a repeat of the Euro 2008 final where Spain won 1-0 thanks to a Fernando Torres goal, although the net might bulge more than once when these two attacking teams clash swords in Durban.

The bookmakers are also getting excited about the match and have started to produce a number of special promotions for the biggest game of the World Cup so far. Totesport should be applauded for a wide range of moneyback specials on all the big events and the UK firm will refund all losing correct score bets on this game if Germany manage to get their revenge for Euro 2008 and win the game 1-0.

Meanwhile, bet365, Paddy Power and Blue Square will be running with their customary ‘Bore Draw’ cashback promotions, with refunds being offered on selected markets if the game ends goalless. While Germany have been scoring for fun recently, they will surely adopt a more defensive approach against a free-flowing Spain and they will have Thomas Muller suspended for the big game.

Ladbrokes are continuing to offer their unprecedented 500% new customer bonus during the World Cup, where you will get a free £25 bet simply by depositing £5 when you register. It’s been a popular offer and they are also providing special odds on the two teams going through in extra-time or on penalties.

Only three matches in the 2010 World Cup have gone to extra-time so far and two were decided on spot kicks. However, Germany and Spain might be evenly-matched at the Moses Mabhida Stadium and you can get 10/1 with Ladbrokes that Vicente Del Bosque’s team win after extra-time. However, you can’t rule out Die Mannschaft winning on penalties as they have done so many times before, with odds of 12/1 available about this possibility.

Over at Coral, you can get a free £20 bet when you deposit and wager £10 on the Germany v Spain match. There are so many markets to choose from and it’s noticeable that they are offering a best-priced 4/1 that Miroslav Klose finishes as Top Goalscorer in the 2010 World Cup. While they might be looking to balance their books, it could be a value offer as the Bayern Munich striker looks to break Ronaldo’s record.

Talking of goalscorer bets, Paddy Power are offering customers the chance to bet on ‘First to Score for their Team’ and ‘Insurebet First Goalscorer’ on the Germany v Spain match in addition to First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer and Anytime Goalscorer. The Insurebet option means that if a player doesn’t score the first goal in a match but scores later in the game, you will get your stake refunded. David Villa has scored first in the last three Spain games and is on offer at 13/5 on the Insurebet market or 4/1 if you just think he will score first.

Less than a week ago, I made the point that Germany were being underrated by the bookmakers despite thrashing England 4-1 in Bloemfontein, with Sporting Bet offering Die Mannschaft at 7/1 on the outright market before they taught Argentina a footballing lesson on Saturday. Since Fabio Capello’s team were knocked out of the World Cup, there has been much criticism levelled at the players, manager, set-up and the fact that too many foreign players feature in the Premier League. The English media seem to be missing an obvious point – they were beaten by superior opponents.

Germany are now 21/10 (Paddy Power) win the World Cup for the first time since they became a unified nation and it would be apt considering how united the team have been over the past fortnight. They have produced three outstanding performances to score four goals against Australian, English and Argentine opposition, while they were the victims of a bad refereeing decision when losing their second game of the tournament to Serbia.

These odds are roughly the same as the price you will get for Spain or Holland to win their first ever World Cup and they both possess some excellent individual players. However, there’s only one team were the sum of parts is greater than the individuals on show and that’s Germany. Joachim Loew’s team defend with two rows of four players when they haven’t got the ball, while Lukas Podolski, Mesut Ozil and Thomas Muller are all quick to support Miroslav Klose in attack.

Spain are 2/1 (Blue Square) to win the 2010 World Cup and it’s set to be an intriguing encounter between themselves and Germany on Wednesday night. There seems to be persistent rumours that many members of the Spanish squad are feeling the burn after a long season, especially as Andres Iniesta and Fernando Torres were injured in the lead-up to the tournament. While it hasn’t stopped David Villa being brilliant in every match, one wonders about how the slow defence of La Furia Roja can stop the Germans flowing forward in numbers, with Gerard Pique appearing to be a liability.

Then we have the Netherlands, a team that were trading at 25/1 on betfair when trailing 1-0 to Brazil at half-time of their quarter final match. Wind the clock forward three days and they are now trading at 9/4 (Victor Chandler) to win the World Cup with Uruguay an opponent that appear to be there for the taking. However, an improved second half performance against the Selecao can’t disguise the fact that this Dutch team have flattered to deceive all tournament and that previous performances against Slovakia, Cameroon, Denmark and Japan were all winning ones without playing well.

If the Uruguayans stop Robben, then they might have some joy and Diego Forlan will be hoping to see plenty of the ball, with Gregory van der Wiel and Nigel de Jong missing for the Dutch. They are carrying the flag for South America and Paddy Power offer 12/1 that La Celeste win the World Cup.

We started the 2010 World Cup with thirty-two teams from all over the planet, although just four remain after 60 matches of football. On Tuesday night, the first place in the final is up for grabs, with Holland facing Uruguay at the Greenpoint Stadium in Cape Town.

It’s likely to be a huge betting contest and many bookmakers have special offers for the game which is well worth checking out. Over at bet365, they continue to run their ‘Penalty Payback’ promotion for the 2010 World Cup, where they’ll refund losing outright bets on any team that gets knocked out on penalties.

So far, bet365 have got away with only refunding losing stakes on Japan and Ghana, not two of the well-backed teams in the competition. However, it’s possible that at least one semi-final this week could go to spot kicks, not to mention the final. Spain are 15/8 favourites, Germany are 2/1, Netherlands are 21/10 and Uruguay are 10/1 with this firm.

Bet365 also have their 0-0 cashback offer available on the Holland v Uruguay and it’s likely that the south Americans will be looking to keep things tight. All losing first goalscorer, last goalscorer, anytime goalscorer, correct score and half-time / full-time bets will be refunded if the game is goalless after ninety minutes. Paddy Power and Blue Square are doing something similar for this game.

Meanwhile, Bet Fred are offering to refund all losing first/last goalscorer, correct score and scorecast bets on Holland v Uruguay if Dirk Kuyt scores in the game. The Liverpool striker likes to get forward and it’s not a bad offer at all.

Similarly, Stan James have used their imagination to create a Diego Forlan special for Tuesday night’s game. If the Uruguay striker scores at any point during the 90-minutes on Tuesday night, then the firm will refund all losing first/last goalscorer, anytime goalscorer and hat-trick bets placed on the game.

There’s been plenty of money for the Netherlands in the build-up to the match in Cape Town and it’s possible that Coral’s 4/6 won’t last until kick-off. Other bookmakers have been running for cover as a major gamble takes place on Bert van Marwijk’s team, with punters clearly being swayed by that victory over Brazil in the quarter final. Sporting Bet are now as short as 4/7 (Sporting Bet) about a Dutch win.

It’s good to see that Ladbrokes have also been giving their punters extra value throughout the World Cup and it’s worth checking out their Enhanced Doubles currently available on the World Cup semi-finals. You can back Holland and Spain both to win at odds of 10/3 or alternatively go for the 9/1 that Uruguay draw and Germany win.

The Magic Sign also have goalscorer doubles available and offer 3/1 that Robin Van Persie scores on Tuesday and David Villa finds the net on Wednesday. A Diego Forlan x Lukas Podolski double is on offer at 9/1.

It doesn’t take a genius to work out that a player will score more goals during a football tournament if he plays more games. Therefore, it’s little surprise that only five men can win the 2010 World Cup Golden Shoe and that the quintet are all playing for teams left in the competition.

It’s been a highly competitive betting market this summer which saw Gonzalo Higuain installed as early favourite after a hat-trick against South Korea took the Argentina striker well clear of the chasing pack. However, the Real Madrid forward was only able to add one more goal to his tally and was leapfrogged by a Spanish striker in the form of his life on Saturday night.

David Villa has been nothing short of phenomenal in South Africa, with the Barcelona forward scoring in every match since that opening game defeat against Switzerland. His late winner against Paraguay has taken him a goal clear at the top of the scoring charts and he may not need to find the net again to add a world award to the European one that was landed two years ago. The 28-year-old is no bigger than 7/10 on betfair, with the fixed-odds firms no bigger than 8/15 (Sporting Bet).

Perhaps Villa will struggle to get any change out of Philipp Lahm, the German right-back and captain who is one of the best in the business. The Bayern Munich player will be looking to also get forward and support his club team-mate Miroslav Klose, who seems to turn from Clark Kent to Superman when he dons the international colours. Four years ago, the Munchen forward won the Golden Shoe and he’s 4/1 (Paddy Power) to repeat this achievement. If you back him at 4/1 and he dead heats with one other player, you will get half your stake paid at odds of 2/1.

Meanwhile Wesley Sneijder is right in the thick of things after FIFA made the odd decision to award Holland’s opening goal against Brazil to the Inter midfielder. Although the ball took a clear deflection off the head of Felipe Melo, the football body’s Technical Study Group has decided that the Netherlands’ number ten is worthy of the goal and that means he’s on four for the tournament with Uruguay lying in wait. Totesport offer a stand-out 12/1 that he finishes top of the pile and it’s possible that his team will fill their boots against the south Americans.

The final player in contention  is Diego Forlan, who stands on three goals after firing a brace home against South Africa and then managing an equaliser against Ghana on Friday night. The Atletico Madrid striker has been crucial to the team’s progress at this World Cup, although it’s asking a lot for him to manage a brace against the Netherlands, especially with strike partner Luis Suarez missing suspended. Ladbrokes offer 25/1 that the former Manchester United forward gets the goals he needs.